Rate Outlook
Where rates are, and what's actually driving them.
The past 90 days have been a rollercoaster. Here's what happened, what it means for your buying power, and whether waiting is costing you money.
Updated May 11, 2026
90-Day Trend
Mortgage Rate Movement
How We Protect You
RateFlex Float-Down
Lock your rate. If rates drop before closing, you get the full drop. No cost. No catch.
Fairway RateFlex
Big Bank "Float-Down"
They call it a float-down, but they keep half.
What the Numbers Mean
Three months in context.
3-Month Low
5.99%
Feb 27
10YR Treasury hit 3.939%. MBS prices peaked above 100.50. This was the best pricing window we've seen this year.
3-Month High
6.50%
Apr 7
Tariff announcements caused a sharp selloff in both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. MBS dropped to 98.42.
Where We Are Now
6.375%
Apr 14
Markets have partially recovered. CPI inflation came in at 2.40% (Truflation: 1.69%). The spread between treasury yields and mortgage rates remains around 2.00%.
What I'm Watching
The short version for buyers.
Bonds closed modestly stronger today, but the recap is already warning volatility isn't done
UMBS 5.0 finished at 98.82, up 0.17 from yesterday's close. The 10-year Treasury ended the day at 4.367%, down about two basis points. No single headline drove the move, just a quiet session with a steady drift toward better pricing. Today's MBS Recap put it plainly: calm and slightly stronger, but volatility will be back.
Today's 6.375% rate comes with slightly better lender pricing than yesterday
A 0.17-point gain in UMBS 5.0 translates to roughly $680 in improved terms on a $400,000 loan, either lower fees or more lender credit at the same rate. The rate itself holds at 6.375%. If you've been sitting on the fence about locking, conditions are incrementally better than yesterday. But the market is explicitly flagging more volatility ahead, so don't expect the calm to last.
Bond traders are quietly questioning how much the monthly jobs number actually matters anymore
This morning's MBS analysis flagged a growing debate about the payroll count's significance in the jobs report. The rapid pace of structural changes in how employment data is collected and interpreted is creating uncertainty about how to read the numbers. When traders lose confidence in a key data point, they anchor to other signals instead. Geopolitical headlines have consistently moved rates more than economic releases over the past several weeks, and that dynamic appears to be continuing.
Next Step
Rates move. Your strategy shouldn't be guessing.
Let's look at your specific numbers, talk through lock timing, and figure out whether now, soon, or later actually makes sense for your situation.
Christian Kosko | NMLS# [INSERT-NMLS] | Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
NMLS# 2289 | Equal Housing Lender | Licensed in DC, MD, VA
This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a rate quote, lock commitment, or loan approval. Rates shown are market estimates based on publicly available treasury and MBS data. Actual mortgage rates depend on credit profile, loan program, property type, and market conditions at time of lock. All loans subject to underwriting approval.