Where rates are, and what's actually driving them.
The past 90 days have been a rollercoaster. Here's what happened, what it means for your buying power, and whether waiting is costing you money.
Updated October 7, 2026
Mortgage rates, last 90 days
RateFlex Float-Down
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Big Bank "Float-Down"
They call it a float-down, but they keep half.
Three months in context.
3-Month Low
5.961%
Mar 2
10YR Treasury hit 3.939%. MBS prices peaked above 100.50. This was the best pricing window we've seen this year.
3-Month High
7.040%
Apr 7
Tariff announcements caused a sharp selloff in both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. MBS dropped to 98.42.
Where We Are Now
7.040%
Apr 14
Markets have partially recovered. CPI inflation came in at 2.40% (Truflation: 1.69%). The spread between treasury yields and mortgage rates remains around 2.00%.
The short version for buyers.
Yields hit a new long-term high this morning, then fully reversed by the close
The 10-year Treasury briefly pushed above 5.36% today, a new long-term high, before staging a complete recovery. The reversal started around 9:30am ET, likely driven by ETF rebalancing flows along with a small drop in oil prices. The afternoon 10-year Treasury auction drew solid demand at those elevated yield levels and helped finish the job. Bonds closed near flat, with the 10-year at 5.288% and MBS down only a few basis points.
Today's drama changed nothing for borrowers: the quoted 30-year rate is still 7.000%
For anyone locking this week, the conventional 30-year quoted rate is 7.000%. On a $400,000 loan that is $2,661 per month in principal and interest. On a $500,000 loan it is $3,327. That rate is the top of the 30-day range, which bottomed at 6.500%. Today's intraday reversal was real, but it did not move the quoted rate off the 30-day ceiling.
The 10-year is testing new long-term highs, and today's recovery is not a trend change
MBS Live's lock/float read tonight was direct: today's mid-day rally 'was not sufficient evidence of a bullish reversal.' The structural headwinds are still stacked against borrowers: war-related inflation risk, elevated Treasury supply from fiscal imbalances, heavy corporate bond issuance competing for investor dollars, resilient stocks, and a Fed still using rates to fight inflation. The 30-day conventional range is 6.500% to 7.000%. You are at the peak, and the forces pushing rates higher have not changed.
Rates move. Your strategy shouldn't be guessing.
Let's look at your specific numbers, talk through lock timing, and figure out whether now, soon, or later actually makes sense for your situation.
Christian Kosko | NMLS# 1415795 | Fairway Home Mortgage
NMLS# 2289 | Equal Housing Lender | Licensed in DC, MD, VA
This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a rate quote, lock commitment, or loan approval. Rates shown are market estimates based on publicly available treasury and MBS data. Actual mortgage rates depend on credit profile, loan program, property type, and market conditions at time of lock. All loans subject to underwriting approval.