Rate Outlook
Where rates are, and what's actually driving them.
The past 90 days have been a rollercoaster. Here's what happened, what it means for your buying power, and whether waiting is costing you money.
Updated August 11, 2026
90-Day Trend
Mortgage Rate Movement
How We Protect You
RateFlex Float-Down
Lock your rate. If rates drop before closing, you get the full drop. No cost. No catch.
Fairway RateFlex
Big Bank "Float-Down"
They call it a float-down, but they keep half.
What the Numbers Mean
Three months in context.
3-Month Low
5.961%
Mar 2
10YR Treasury hit 3.939%. MBS prices peaked above 100.50. This was the best pricing window we've seen this year.
3-Month High
6.644%
Apr 7
Tariff announcements caused a sharp selloff in both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. MBS dropped to 98.42.
Where We Are Now
6.608%
Apr 14
Markets have partially recovered. CPI inflation came in at 2.40% (Truflation: 1.69%). The spread between treasury yields and mortgage rates remains around 2.00%.
What I'm Watching
The short version for buyers.
Oil and corporate bond issuance hit bonds at the same time today, and yields climbed back toward the week's highs
Oil prices have been running a Monday reversal pattern all summer tied to the Iran war news cycle. After hitting a low last Wednesday, prices rose through the end of last week and accelerated again today. Bond yields followed. A heavy wave of corporate debt issuance added a second layer of selling pressure around midday, pulling demand away from Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.706%, up 0.058% on the day. MBS lost about 10 ticks from Friday's close, essentially giving back the early-week rally.
The quoted 30-year rate holds at 6.500% today, putting you 0.125% below the 30-day high
At 6.500% today, a $500,000 loan runs $3,160 per month in principal and interest. A $400,000 loan is $2,528. You are 0.125% below the 30-day peak of 6.625%. MBS sold off during the session but not enough to push the quoted increment higher. The 10-year is now at 4.706%, right below the 4.71% technical ceiling. If that ceiling holds, rates have limited room to worsen from here. If it breaks, the next stop is 4.80% and that would push the quoted rate toward the top of the 30-day range.
Iran headlines have been the main driver of rates for months, and that is not changing anytime soon
The 30-year conventional rate has been range-bound between 6.375% and 6.625% for the past month. Today's 6.500% sits right in the middle of that band. The pattern is consistent: oil drops on peace-deal progress, bonds rally and rates improve; oil climbs on escalation or a Monday reversal, bonds sell and rates worsen. Economic data has largely been a sideshow. Until the Iran situation resolves in one direction or the other, your rate outlook follows the oil price more than any jobs report.
Next Step
Rates move. Your strategy shouldn't be guessing.
Let's look at your specific numbers, talk through lock timing, and figure out whether now, soon, or later actually makes sense for your situation.
Christian Kosko | NMLS# [INSERT-NMLS] | Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
NMLS# 2289 | Equal Housing Lender | Licensed in DC, MD, VA
This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a rate quote, lock commitment, or loan approval. Rates shown are market estimates based on publicly available treasury and MBS data. Actual mortgage rates depend on credit profile, loan program, property type, and market conditions at time of lock. All loans subject to underwriting approval.