Rate Outlook
Where rates are, and what's actually driving them.
The past 90 days have been a rollercoaster. Here's what happened, what it means for your buying power, and whether waiting is costing you money.
Updated September 25, 2026
90-Day Trend
Mortgage Rate Movement
How We Protect You
RateFlex Float-Down
Lock your rate. If rates drop before closing, you get the full drop. No cost. No catch.
Fairway RateFlex
Big Bank "Float-Down"
They call it a float-down, but they keep half.
What the Numbers Mean
Three months in context.
3-Month Low
5.961%
Mar 2
10YR Treasury hit 3.939%. MBS prices peaked above 100.50. This was the best pricing window we've seen this year.
3-Month High
7.040%
Apr 7
Tariff announcements caused a sharp selloff in both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. MBS dropped to 98.42.
Where We Are Now
7.040%
Apr 14
Markets have partially recovered. CPI inflation came in at 2.40% (Truflation: 1.69%). The spread between treasury yields and mortgage rates remains around 2.00%.
What I'm Watching
The short version for buyers.
Today bonds sold off hard and there was no clear catalyst
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.204%, up over 10 basis points on the day. MBS fell nearly a full point. What made today unusual: trading volume hit 3.8 million 10-year futures contracts against a recent daily norm of 1 to 2 million. That kind of volume surge without a news driver is not a normal bad day. It is what happens when large institutions decide to reprice their view of risk all at once.
You are at the 30-day ceiling on rates and locking sooner is the cleaner call
The quoted conventional 30-year is 7.000% today. On a $500,000 loan, that is $3,327 per month in principal and interest. On a $400,000 loan, it is $2,661. Over the past 30 days, quoted rates have ranged from 6.500% to 7.000%. You are at the top right now. Floating from here means betting the market finds a reason to improve before it gets worse. The market has not given that signal.
The 10-year is at 5.204% and the selling has no visible end point yet
Two days in a row of high-volume bond selling with no obvious catalyst is the definition of a trend without a floor. The 30-day conventional rate range has run from 6.500% to 7.000%, and today you are at the top. The thing to watch for: a day where yields drop on heavy volume, meaning the sellers have been absorbed. That signal has not appeared yet. Until it does, the conservative stance holds.
Next Step
Rates move. Your strategy shouldn't be guessing.
Let's look at your specific numbers, talk through lock timing, and figure out whether now, soon, or later actually makes sense for your situation.
Christian Kosko | NMLS# [INSERT-NMLS] | Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
NMLS# 2289 | Equal Housing Lender | Licensed in DC, MD, VA
This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a rate quote, lock commitment, or loan approval. Rates shown are market estimates based on publicly available treasury and MBS data. Actual mortgage rates depend on credit profile, loan program, property type, and market conditions at time of lock. All loans subject to underwriting approval.